RKL Division Distribution Theory
Originally a Twitter thread (09/22/21), I wanted to reformat this as Medium article so it was easier to read and reference. At the end I will link the GitHub repository and the original Twitter thread. Let’s dive in!
Rumble Kong League (RKL) is an upcoming 3v3 basketball game being built on the Ethereum network. Drawing lots of attention from the NFT world, NBA players such as Stephen Curry and Paul George have bought Kongs in anticipation of its release.
Before it was announced how divisions in the game were going to be separated, I wanted to explore a theory that it would be increasingly larger divisions for lower-skilled Kongs. This was heavily influenced by the pyramid shape of division distribution in the initial whitepaper, but it has since been announced that divisions will be divided equally.
Looking at a histogram of the total boost distribution among all 10,000 Kongs, we can see it is pretty normally distributed (yay, RNG).
Based on the whitepaper, we know that the plan is to have six divisions for the league. Let’s imagine what that makeup might look like (if they weren’t equally distributed, which we now know they will be).
With a mean total boost of ~198, a standard deviation of ~31, and a roughly normal distribution, we can use these stats to assign Kongs to divisions. The graphic in the whitepaper shows a pyramid, insinuating that the stronger divisions will be smaller.
My method to break apart divisions by boost:
- Division 1: between mean+sd*2 and 400 (max)
- Division 2: between mean+sd*1.5 and mean+sd*2
- Division 3: between mean+sd and mean+sd*1.5
- Division 4: between mean+sd*0.5 and mean+sd
- Division 5: between mean-sd*0.25 and mean+sd*0.5
- Division6 : between 0 (min) and mean-sd*0.25
This gives us a division distribution that looks like this:
Here are the theoretical division stats in a nice little table:
With the floor and ETH prices at the time of analysis, that means the entry points to own a club (team of 3) in $USD look like:
- Division 1: ~$68,000
- Division 6: ~$13,000
At the time, this was before the details of the AAA studio partnership, staking, game play, naming, or clubs.
